A program of Atlanta Israel CoalitionIsrael Brief · Wed 14 Oct 2026
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Vantage

Track Record

Every probability call Vantage has graded, misses included.

A hillside town above terraced, scrub-covered ground in the Judean hills
Graded in public

Vantage puts a number on what it expects to happen, and once a quarter we go back and grade every call whose window has closed. Here are those grades as we published them, with the misses in the same tables as the hits. The reasoning behind each call is in the edition it ran in, for members.

By quarter

How we grade

A call at medium-high or high on something that happened is right. So is a call at low or medium-low on something that didn't. The reverse is wrong. Medium means we didn't know, so a call at medium is graded only on whether we then moved it the right way.

When a call hangs on a deadline and the people who set the deadline move it, the call tells you nothing either way, so we leave it unscored. When we called for something and can't find evidence it happened, we count it as a miss. A call stays open until its window closes, and when a later edition replaces a call on the same question, we grade the later one.

Every graded call is shown the way we published it, with the probability we gave at the time. A call that is still open shows its number once it is graded. Our editorial standards say we never quietly rewrite a past call, and this page is where you can check.

Q3 2026

Calls published in the July and August editions. 49 calls on 42 claims. Graded in Vantage: August–September 2026, 6 Oct 2026.

Q3 2026 probability calls, with the probability given, the date made, what happened, and the grade
CallOur probabilityMadeWhat happenedGrade
Iran closing Hormuz and keeping it closedLow60 days6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Iran kept the strait shut to ordinary shipping for the whole window. The Q2 audit had called this our cleanest read.Wrong
Iran's regime collapsing under the succession15–20%60 days6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026The regime didn't collapse inside the window.Right
The IDF keeping up the strikes and demolitions across the LitaniMedium-high30–45 days6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Strikes and demolitions held their pace through July.Right
A Hezbollah mass-casualty strike pulling the Dahiyeh operation off the cabinet's deskMedium30–45 days6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026No mass-casualty strike and no Dahiyeh operation. Our daily logged it as happened off a drone hit on an unmanned vehicle, and we don't count that.Medium
The Lebanese Army taking more than its two pilot villagesMedium30–45 days6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026The pilot never spread. August cut the call to low, and that's the move we credit.Medium
Hamas keeping armed control of Gaza for good65–70%60 days6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Hamas is still armed and in charge.Right
The June 17 memorandum holding through the resumed Doha roundMedium-high30–60 days6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026The memorandum didn't survive August and September, with American and Iranian forces trading fire across the Gulf.Wrong
Basic Law: Torah Study clearing all its readings before the Knesset rises July 17The lower betby 17 July6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026It passed on 13 July. The August edition owned the miss at the time.Wrong
Brussels freezing Smotrich's and Ben-Gvir's assetsMedium-highthe quarter6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026No sanctions. Prague's veto held, with Hungary beside it.Wrong
Trump reopening the F-35 sale or handing Erdogan the KAAN enginesMedium-high30 days, NATO summit week6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Trump lifted the sanctions at the Ankara summit and said he'd certainly consider selling Turkey F-35s. State shut it again on 22 July. We scored the words, and what we scored was a gesture.Right
A European foreign ministry citing the UN's 20,179-child count in a sanctions measureMedium-highthe quarter6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026It turned up in no European sanctions package we could find. We haven't read every national annex, and a call we can't find evidence for counts against us.Wrong
A Western court indicting a serving Iranian official over a diaspora plotLowthe quarter6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026An Argentine judge charged serving Iranian officials over the 1994 AMIA bombing. We meant a plot from this war, and on the call's own words it went against us.Wrong
The July 24 vote on the prosecutor who signed the Netanyahu warrantNo number6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Member states removed the prosecutor on 24 July. We called the vote a toss-up and didn't put a number on it.No number
Sustained Iranian closure of the Strait of HormuzMedium, raised from low60 days4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026The strait stayed shut to ordinary shipping for the whole window. We moved the right way, and not far enough.Medium
A continuous ten-to-fourteen-day American campaign against Iran's missile arrayMedium-low60 days4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026The campaign never came.Right
Israeli enforcement in southern Lebanon continues at its current paceMedium-high30–45 days4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Held through August and September. The campaign it tracked is over.Right
Expansion of the Lebanese Army pilot zones in the southLow, lowered from medium60 days4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026The Lebanese army hasn't certified a village since.Right
Hezbollah forced out of the Ali al-Taher bunker complex, or Israel takes itMedium-high30 days4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Israeli infantry took it on the last day of the window, and engineers blew it up. The Lebanese army we'd listed first played no part.Right
Israel signs the Board of Peace roadmapLow30 days4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Israel didn't sign.Right
A British trade ban or sanctions announcement before Israel's October 27 electionMedium-low90 days4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Britain announced its measures on 8 September.Wrong
The High Court strikes down the haredi arrest freezeHigh60 days4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026The High Court voided the freeze on 3 September.Right
Emergency reserve call-up orders extended past the end of SeptemberHigh60 days4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026The cabinet extended the call-up authority to 30 November.Right
Partial implementation of the Gaza roadmap declared without an Israeli signatureMedium60 days4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026A start was declared without Israel. We had it at even odds.Medium
A Hormuz navigation arrangement announced without Iranian ratificationMedium-high60 days4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Terms surfaced in the first week of August. Nobody published or ran a mechanism.Wrong
Iraq's September 30 militia deadline passes without meaningful disarmamentHigh60 days4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026The militias are still armed, but Baghdad moved the date to June 2027. A call hung on a date its subject can move tells you nothing either way.Unscored
Israel recovering the decision to act on its own bordersShown once graded6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Still open.Open
Iran rebuilding the nuclear programShown once graded6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Still open.Open
Hamas waiting Israel out into the next governmentShown once graded6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Still open. Resolves with the election.Open
A Democratic White House making arms-conditioning its floorShown once graded6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Still open.Open
Western aliyah holding at its 2025 rate through the yearShown once graded6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Still open.Open
A genuinely disarmed committee actually governing GazaShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open.Open
Saudi Arabia opens a ground campaign in YemenShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open. Our daily took it down to medium-low the next day and never said why.Open
The 2028 aid memorandum converts away from direct US military grant subsidyShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open.Open
A bloc-wide EU trade ban on goods from Israeli communitiesShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open.Open
Formal Saudi normalization with IsraelShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open.Open
F-35 transfer to TurkeyShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open.Open
Further ICC warrants sought against Israeli figuresShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open.Open
A government substantially like the current one forms after October 27Shown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open. Our daily carried it at low from early August, and we held our number.Open
An opposition government forms and seats the haredi partiesShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open.Open
The genocide charge becomes standard usage in mainstream Democratic political speechShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open.Open
Western sentencing catching up to Western arrests in violent antisemitic attacksShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open.Open
Israel's 2026 aliyah target of 30,000 arrivals is metShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open.Open
A further commitment announced in Israel's name to terms Jerusalem has not agreedShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open, and closes on 2 November. The nearest thing so far is a mid-August briefing, and a briefing isn't an announcement.Open
A fifth EU member state adopts a national ban on goods from Israeli communitiesShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open.Open
A further Western public institution formally drops the IHRA antisemitism definitionShown once graded4 Aug 2026Vantage, August 2026Still open.Open
A disarmed technocratic panel actually governing GazaMedium at best6 months6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Replaced by the August call on the same question.Replaced
Netanyahu reconstituting a government much like this one40–45%the election cycle6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Replaced by the August call on the same question.Replaced
An opposition forced to seat the haredi parties25–30%the election cycle6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Replaced by the August call on the same question.Replaced
Riyadh normalizing with IsraelLow6 months6 Jul 2026Vantage, July 2026Replaced by the August call on the same question.Replaced

Q2 2026

Claims carried through the March to June editions. 7 claims. Graded in Vantage: July 2026, 6 Jul 2026.

We graded Q2 claim by claim in the July edition, before we started grading a call at medium only on how we moved it. Those grades stand as published. Calls still open at the end of June were graded again in Q3.

Q2 2026 probability calls, with the probability given, the date made, what happened, and the grade
CallOur probabilityMadeWhat happenedGrade
The Doha talks trading away Israel's freedom to act on its own bordersMedium-high30–60 days3 Jun 2026Vantage, June 2026The 17 June memorandum took force with Israel refused a reading of its fourteen clauses. We marked it under-hedged: it happened faster and more formally than medium-high allowed.Right
A Lebanon clause in the Doha deal, and that clause binding the IDFLebanon language: medium. Binding the IDF: lower30–60 days3 Jun 2026Vantage, June 2026The late-June framework carried Lebanon language and handed over two pilot villages. Its annex left Israel free to act and set no withdrawal date. Both halves landed as called.Right
Iran rebuilding its nuclear programShown once graded1 Mar 2026Vantage, March 2026Still open.Open
Iran's regime collapsing under the successionShown once graded1 Mar 2026Vantage, March 2026No collapse by the end of June. Carried into Q3, where it was graded right.Open
Hamas keeping armed control of Gaza for goodShown once graded1 Mar 2026Vantage, March 2026Confirmed by what Hamas did through June, and carried into Q3, where it was graded right.Open
Netanyahu reconstituting a government much like this oneShown once graded15 May 2026The Math Survives the VoteStill open. The election decides it.Open
Iran closing Hormuz and keeping it closedShown once graded3 Jun 2026Vantage, June 2026Held at low through the quarter and carried into Q3, where it was graded wrong.Open